Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2026

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Cheeparoj Tansukkasem

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pariwiwat Manajit (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wongsathorn Wongwanichjitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pongdanai Sriphueak (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-

Nunthawat Sukseangjalern

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Postsawee Aunruean (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Piyawat Nundee (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ekalux Ua-areemitr (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tatthep Kasetsin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Pariwiwat Manajit

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cheeparoj Tansukkasem (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.