Ira, Scarlet Revenger at National Championship 2026

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Henrik Nilsson

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ola Birgersson (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Tallstig (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mikael Vedemar

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rickard Ekermann (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fredrik Maxe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Johan Reidel

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Malander (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Tallstig (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Gustav André (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 27:73

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rickard Ekermann (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Draw	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patricia Gustafsson

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Heiden (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs emanuel Plan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Moynagh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 14:86

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Kristoffersson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.