National Championship 2026 - Sweden - Fang, Dracai of Blades (CC)

Fang, Dracai of Blades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Moynagh

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nic Palm (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patricia Gustafsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 86:14

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.17
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Carl De Soysa

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gustav André (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anton André (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Paul Petersson-Rebelo

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs emanuel Plan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Sandén (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carl De Soysa (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.