Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at National Championship 2026 - Finland
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
40th • 2-3-1
33%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
3.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Michael Captain (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Otso Somerla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Antti Humalamäki (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Antti Tikkakoski (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Valtteri Kurhela (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56
Round 9: Win vs Heikki Halla-aho (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zyggy Starlight | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.