Calling: Hartford - Olympia (Sealed)

Olympia

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Hamilton

5th • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michel Remillard (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Trenton McBride (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ben Cook (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher D'Agostino (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joe Santianna (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Adam Green (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.94
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

ry mo

43rd • 6-1-1

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Oleary (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Solis (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Evan Herndon (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew DiGregorio (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Charles Simmons (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Dexter Phan (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.40
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-

Jacob Baugh

20th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jose Santos martinez (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Laraiso (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Miller (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs John Zapata (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Birch (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Amber Zee (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Michael Bell

32nd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Francis (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Peyton Sayasith (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Rody Burg (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Hurilla (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Marco Jurakovich (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Hannan (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

Matt Jacobs

34th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Devin Bell (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Leon Lu (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Christopher D'Agostino (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jimmy Niro Demers

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Eric Roberts (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Logan Walton (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs David Lee (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sunny Yang (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.13
R2	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Peter Stanish

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Seman (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Marmonti (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Catherine Powell (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Fay (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.94
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ryan Fisse

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Zoey Gerstner (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bill Early (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jason Wenz (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Leon Lu (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Lezberg (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Mateo (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R5	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.40
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Thomas Battaglia

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Brian Lee (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Stanish (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Goodkin (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Cesar Tran

dropped • 4-3-1

62%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Cook (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dung (Yung) Le (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Gabriel Solis (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eli Itzkowitz (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Murdock (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Sealed	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Elizabeth Sprinkle

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Mussen (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bea Budnik (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Stephen Olympia

dropped • 3-2-3

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Jason Price II (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Levy (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Graden Hutchinson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Catherine Powell (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Markham (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs theofanis neofotistos (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs Jacob Lezberg (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-
R2	Sealed	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.67
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.81
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Draw	✓	0.73	-

Michael Rutkowski

dropped • 4-2-1

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Keith Milde (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Marc-Antoine Leclerc (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matt Hefferon (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Vallone (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R4	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Jared Wyce

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Erick Boeder (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tristan Kilper (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Chris Rowland (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Jason Wenz

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Hazel Hensley (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Majin Bae (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Fisse (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Bestwina (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Menion Croll

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Olivia Davenport (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Eric Roberts (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jordan Barry (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.92
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Majin Bae

dropped • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tyson Au (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jason Wenz (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs William Pearlman (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Anastasia Benner

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Molho (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Philippe Paquin (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Cygul (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Craig Krempels (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Stanko (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Chad McKittrick

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Allen Pham (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michael Clair (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Diana Green (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.90
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Jake Torres

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tommy Hendricks (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jeff Barber (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michel Beaumont (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jibril Jeewanjee (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jeff Barber

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Gardner (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jake Torres (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Edouard Veillette (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.31
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R6	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mara Faris

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Richard Smith (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Amelia Russell (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Philippe Paquin (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Shane Gifford

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jon Smith (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Eli Itzkowitz (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs JP Coleman (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eric Wainright (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R6	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Brandon Bestwina

dropped • 2-3-1

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Leon Lu (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs shawn Hill (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Darryl Thompson (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Zibbideo (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Wenz (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Amelia Russell

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Hurilla (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mason Taylor (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R3	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Anthony Vero Cerenzio

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Chris Fazio (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Webb (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Talty (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Darryl Thompson

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs victor Jimenez (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Edouard Veillette (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Chris Legg (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Bestwina (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ian Osdale

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dalton (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Aaron Blum (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jibril Jeewanjee

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Langevin (Unknown)

75:25

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew DiGregorio (Unknown)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brent Brown (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jake Torres (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R5	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mark Cornett

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs ryan moran (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jeff Thompson (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Lourdes Rivera (Betsy) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Sealed	Betsy	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.51
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Michael Zibbideo

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Kassai) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Thiele (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ariel Chapman (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Bestwina (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.