Kassai at Calling: Hartford

Kassai

96 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aidan Barsony

10th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brian Fowler (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Evans (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Mark Morrison (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Rich (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Nick Webb

29th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Richard Smith (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sebastian Russell (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Michel Beaumont (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Bradley Tashman (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 6-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Samonte (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cody Williams (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Randall Sims (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs ry mo (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-

Cody Williams

2nd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Robert Teodorczy (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Noah Biros (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matt Muus (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michel Beaumont (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Rody Burg (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

David Lee

3rd • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Shea (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Hannan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Sabastian Chizhik

11th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Eben Merkel (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Hannan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Quinn Wongkew (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Doan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Frederick Governale (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nathan Crawford

18th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Terry Thai (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andy truong (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs William Pistel (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Christopher D'Agostino (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Green (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Casey Knepley

30th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Williamson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Buganski (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Elly Bird (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Noah Clark (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Bea Budnik (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Christopher Yunck

37th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Schoof (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brooke Ritchie (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Laraiso (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Elly Bird (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Nifong (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs The Better Johnson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Derek Chiu

39th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Angel Moret (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michael Downing (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jared Wyce (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Shane Gifford (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Leon Lu (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Merrick Kemp

42nd • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Elaine Erickson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Stevens (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Michel Beaumont (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Chad McKittrick (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.69
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13

Jordan Clost

47th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bill Jargowsky (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Bill Early (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Ptak (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jack Fay (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs victor Jimenez (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Logan Walton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Steven Doan

50th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Allen Pham (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ariel Chapman (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christopher D'Agostino

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Sean Caruthers (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Miller (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs William Bradshaw (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Ryan Rich

dropped • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Peter Stanish (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bradley Tashman (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jon Smith (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Jarik Caisse (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

nicolas Jamoulle

15th • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jeff Thompson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs John Zapata (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Natalie Hunt (Unknown)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matt Di Marco (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jason Watkins (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Steven Doan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arthur Stevens

dropped • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cody St Lawrence (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Verderame (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Michael McBride (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Jason Watkins (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.98
R8	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13

Brooke Ritchie

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Derek Anderson (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Reese Toomre (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Lezberg (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Randall Sims (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alexander McPherson (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Hazel Hensley (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R5	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Raj Parikh

dropped • 5-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Diana Green (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Dziewit (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tommy Hendricks (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Derek Byrne (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Alex Ptak (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Draw	✓	0.70	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Joshua Hannan

51st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Keating (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Adam Columbia (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Eric Wainright (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Lee (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Randall Sims (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Bell (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R8	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Amber Zee

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Pheano Black (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Sunny Yang (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.98
R8	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Edward Knight

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Matt Muus (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Walker (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Tedeschi (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Stanko (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.98
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Frederick Governale

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Arocha-Coard (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Romer (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Verderame (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicolas Bouffard

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Donovan Wainright (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Vanpatten (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Biros (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Justin Evans (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Logan Walton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dantes Ha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.19
R4	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

The Better Johnson

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Rosario (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Noah Emrick (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew VanPatten (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michael Stanko (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

William Bradshaw

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Zibbideo (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs ryan moran (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Bradley Tashman (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jason Wenz (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher D'Agostino (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

nikola marcoux

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Fitzpatrick (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Catherine Powell (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs victor Jimenez (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Bradley Tashman (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Marco Jurakovich (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.72

Benjamin Levit

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Nathanael Frautschy (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Elaine Erickson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Keating (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Allen Pham (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bill Early (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Benevides (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Edouard Veillette (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Bernard Eng (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Dantes Ha

dropped • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs David Dredge (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tyson Au (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Elaine Hamontree (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fischer (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Adam Schoof (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Hazel Hensley

dropped • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Wenz (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Matt Muus (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Fontan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Evans (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Evan Herndon (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Draw vs Brooke Ritchie (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs June Aino (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

John Powell

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Chris Rowland (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Elliott Rinke (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Justin Jones (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Weiss (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Brian Fowler (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Diana Green (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Draw	✓	0.61	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

victor Jimenez

dropped • 4-3-1

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Darryl Thompson (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs shawn Hill (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Michael Stanko (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs nikola marcoux (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alex Broussard (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Adam Fischer

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brian Lee (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Mateo (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Hunter Finkbeiner (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Rathanak Teng (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dantes Ha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Peter Hong (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Ben Cook

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Cesar Tran (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Alex Ptak (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Miller (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Dayna Hagewood (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Sean Caruthers (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Derek Byrne

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jake Fellows (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ronald Stanish (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Green (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Sitrick (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tristan Kilper (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Schoof (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Elaine Erickson

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Levit (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brent Brown (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Hardy (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Connor Talty (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.45
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Noah Clark

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Austin Gargiule (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Millar (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Rathanak Teng (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.58
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Elaine Hamontree

dropped • 3-4-1

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Markham (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Lakkotrypis (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Dantes Ha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Draw vs Jeremy Murdock (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Henri Veillette

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Lourdes Rivera (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Fay (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Nelson (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Jones (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Bernard Eng (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Justin Evans (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.70
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jonathan Price

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Trevor O'Connor (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Beygelman (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kevin Fontan

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

70:30

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Mussen (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs ryan moran (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Amelia Russell (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew VanPatten (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.58
R6	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Russell Berger

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jake Fellows (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Amelia Russell (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Downing (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Stephen Olympia (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sean Caruthers

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher D'Agostino (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Manny Beatty (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Barry (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Caleb Zavits (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Ben Cook (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

ryan moran

dropped • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mark Cornett (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Kaliszak (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Fontan (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Brent Brown (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Donovan Wainright (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs John Zapata (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Price II (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Eric Roberts

dropped • 2-5-1

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Pope (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Goodkin (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Bowman (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Gaudet (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Menion Croll (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Draw vs Brian Kaliszak (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-

Dung (Yung) Le

dropped • 2-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Buganski (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cesar Tran (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Chapman (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Williams (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Price (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marc-Antoine Leclerc

dropped • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tom Segrave (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Michael Rutkowski (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Manuel Rosario (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Fowley (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Michael Stanko

dropped • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Mark Almasian (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Bowman (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs victor Jimenez (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eric Wainright (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Edward Knight (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Ptak

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Cook (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Clair (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Reese Toomre (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cas Mulder

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Donovan Wainright (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Kilper (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sammy Linteau (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Price (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Adam Fischer (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kyle Nunn

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Melissa Steinman (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ricardo Rua (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Peter Hong (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Mitchell Blowey (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Tedeschi (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matt Muus

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Knight (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Jones (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Douglas Jones (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Tillinghast (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Cody Williams (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Eric Gaudreault (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Matthew Fay

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Louis Philippe Côté (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Henri Veillette (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander McPherson (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Holinaty (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Stanish (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Michael Popowich

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Bestwina (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Megan Page (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bobby Bourque (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Darryl Thompson (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Zack Phillips (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peyton Sayasith

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Roth (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew VanPatten (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael Schober (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Bell (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Catherine Powell (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Justin Evans (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Tommy Hendricks

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jake Torres (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Sapiel (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Austin Gargiule (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Brian Kaliszak (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Nghia Tran (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Trent Lennon

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Schober (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Mateo (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Jones (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Blum (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Bobby Bourque

dropped • 3-3-1

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Mateo (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Jeremy Murdock (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Menion Croll (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Manuel Rosario (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Andreadakis (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.66
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael McBride

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Trevor O'Connor (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Devin Bell (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Levy (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Robert Cotton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Arthur Stevens (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Diana Green

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Robert Sievert (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Millar (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Chad McKittrick (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jason Price II (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs John Powell (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathanael Frautschy

dropped • 2-3-2

86%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Benjamin Levit (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brian Fowler (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Draw vs Robert Cotton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Elrod

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Graden Hutchinson (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Markham (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs David Letourneau (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Verderame (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Fay (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Price II (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Donovan Wainright

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Cas Mulder (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Zach Allen (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Jones (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Bryam Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs ryan moran (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Eli Itzkowitz (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ronald Malouin

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mundo (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Elliott Rinke (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Murdock (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Eli Itzkowitz (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Christopher Spescha

dropped • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Justin Rowland (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Mottram (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Cas Mulder (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Mundo (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Matthew Williamson

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Erick Boeder (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ren Fisk (Unknown)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Chris Rowland (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Barry (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Pauly (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Barrett Goss

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

60:40

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Benevides (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Derrick Corriea (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jack Fay

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Angel Moret (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Casey Walker (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Elrod (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jeff Thompson

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mark Cornett (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Goodridge (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Elliott Rinke (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Marco Jurakovich (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jonathan Gracza

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Chris Rowland (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Casey Walker (Unknown)

60:40

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Marco Jurakovich (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Hardy

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ektor Angelomatis (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Berkel (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Elaine Erickson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Laraiso (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael Walker

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Elly Bird (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Roth (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Knight (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Douglas Jones (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Timothy Dziewit

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Robert Abril (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs June Aino (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Andy truong (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Zack Phillips

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marco Jurakovich (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Mottram (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brian Fowler

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matt Hefferon (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs John Powell (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.94
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cooper Pemelton

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Randall Sims (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Gaudreault (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Yongji Yang (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kyle Benevides

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Markham (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Lourdes Rivera (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs brynn nieboer (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Levit (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Manuel Rosario

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs The Better Johnson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Tyson Au (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Green (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Marc-Antoine Leclerc (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Millar (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Bobby Bourque (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Samuel Tillinghast

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ektor Angelomatis (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matt Muus (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Ben Cook (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jeremy Murdock

dropped • 1-2-3

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kyler Dustin (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Bobby Bourque (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Draw vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Ronald Malouin (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Draw vs Elaine Hamontree (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Cesar Tran (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Daniel Mundo

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Kevin Brayer (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Ronald Malouin (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bryam Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Fitzpatrick

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs nikola marcoux (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Langevin (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nik Katebian (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Bernard Eng (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Eben Merkel

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Cody St Lawrence (Unknown)

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Chapman (Unknown)

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs David Sitrick (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Eugene C

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Walker (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Melissa Steinman (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Evan Herndon

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Unknown)

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Wells (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs ry mo (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Dustin West (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonah Markham

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Benevides (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Talty (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Menion Croll (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Keating (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.74
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Thomas Mottram

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mei Yang (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Holinaty (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael Beygelman

dropped • 1-1-3

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Draw vs Kevin Zheng (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Michael Keating (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Draw vs Sander Hartlage (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Price (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

brynn nieboer

dropped • 1-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Unknown)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Jason Price II (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Sammy Linteau (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Phillip Bradford (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Benevides (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Draw	✓	0.61	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Bill Early

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tin Duong (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Fisse (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Levit (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brent Brown

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Megan Page (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Jarik Caisse (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Elaine Erickson (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jibril Jeewanjee (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs ryan moran (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Markham

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Elaine Hamontree (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs David Elrod (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Betsy) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Stephen Olympia (Olympia) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Betsy	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Megan Page

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Brent Brown (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Popowich (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs William OLeary (Unknown)

60:40

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Edouard Veillette (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Melissa Steinman

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Nunn (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs JP Coleman (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Addison Hudson (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Santos martinez (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Downing

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Laflin (Unknown)

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Dawson Gilbert (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Vallone (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ronald Stanish

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs David Dredge (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Byrne (Kassai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Dalton (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Vallone (Kayo) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.