Betsy at Calling: Hartford

Betsy

31 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Elly Bird

5th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Michael Walker (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Justin Evans (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs David Letourneau (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Randall Sims (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Casey Knepley (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jon Smith (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Sealed	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Hayden Jeanson

16th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs David Elrod (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Marc-Antoine Leclerc (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Evan Bridges (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Caleb Engen (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Michael Metallo

48th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Elliott Rinke (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Barber (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Richard Gapinski (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Russell (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs David Mink (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs nicolas Jamoulle (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs David Lee (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Joe Santianna

28th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs William OLeary (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Noah Clark (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Rob Cygul (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Tommy Hendricks (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Connor Talty (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Pedro Esaki

31st • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Gaudet (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs TCGTed Grabow (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Fay (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Majin Bae (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Eric Dauernnheim

36th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Amber Zee (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Price (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Leigh Pushard (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nathan Oleary (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Hannan (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.65
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Caleb Engen

35th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Gracza (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Derek Chiu (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Alex Broussard (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Noah Clark (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R7	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Robin Avenoso

56th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Goldfinger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Samonte (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Edouard Veillette (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Forrest List (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Ben Weinfeld (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Biros (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Aaron Blum (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.65
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Joseph Kaiser

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs William Berger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Laraiso (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Michael McBride (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Blum (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Amber Zee (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs ry mo (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Edward Knight (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs John Zapata (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Chapman (Unknown)

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Everett Rizner (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Markham (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Peter Hong (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tyson Au (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs victor Jimenez (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R5	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

June Aino

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs KC Glass (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Dziewit (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Oleary (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Bradley Tashman (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Tristan Kilper (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Sebastian Russell (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Verderame (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Hazel Hensley (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Mason Taylor

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Amelia Russell (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Pope (Unknown)

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Greg Mitchell (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Nathanael Frautschy (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Jean-François Veillette (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Pauly (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Nicholas Seman

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bernard Eng (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Stanish (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Di Marco (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Porter Jones (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Walker (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Jeff Barber (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander Heger (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Win vs Matthew VanPatten (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adam Schoof

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Casey Walker (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Philippe Paquin (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Dantes Ha (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Rathanak Teng (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Derek Byrne (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.65
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Dylan Vanpatten

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Forrest List (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Miller (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Mundo (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Justin Rowland (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Clost (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Michael McBride (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Michel Beaumont (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jason Watkins

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Cygul (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Barrett Goss (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Eben Merkel (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Nghia Tran (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Stevens (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.65
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Quinn Wongkew

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Biros (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Chad McKittrick (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Henri Veillette (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Chad Chouinard (Unknown)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Sabastian Chizhik (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michel Remillard (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Win vs Justin Cardoza (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Dayna Hagewood (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.91
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Justin Rowland

dropped • 3-4-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Frederick Governale (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Christopher Spescha (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Salitra (Unknown)

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tho Bui (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Vanpatten (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Alexander McPherson (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 Sealed

Round 8: Loss vs Joshua Millar (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Sebastian Russell

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Fisse (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Mara Faris (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Webb (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs June Aino (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Rob Cygul (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Sunny Yang

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Fox (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Verderame (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Tristan Pisani-Blair (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Win vs Matt Di Marco (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Amber Zee (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R7	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Lucas Oswald

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs theofanis neofotistos (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Julien Bergeron (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Peter Stanish (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 Sealed

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Stevens (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.30
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Brennan Tolnay

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Julien Bergeron (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Porter Jones (Unknown)

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Russell Berger (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Doan (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Amber Zee (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R4	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.97
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

David Sitrick

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Bryam Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Buganski (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Eben Merkel (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Derek Byrne (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Dylan Hurilla

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Amelia Russell (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs David Mink (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kate Kish (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Austin Gargiule (Unknown)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Bell (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R6	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nghia Tran

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Travis Watkins (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Broussard (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Win vs Celeste Vautour (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R4	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.86
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Peter Hong

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Ren Fisk (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Unknown)

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Nunn (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Tavares (Betsy) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Matt Hefferon

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Tony Mapelli (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Gapinski (Unknown)

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mitchell Blowey (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Brian Fowler (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 Sealed

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Millar (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alexander Romer

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs David Letourneau (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Philippe Côté (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Win vs Adam Columbia (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Frederick Governale (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.62
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.83
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Timothy Wells

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Chris Legg (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Win vs Evan Herndon (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Espinoza (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Aidan Berkel

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Green (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Loss vs William Pistel (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Hardy (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Henri Veillette (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Lourdes Rivera

dropped • 0-4-1

80%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 Sealed

Round 1: Loss vs Henri Veillette (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 Sealed

Round 2: Draw vs Christopher Lakkotrypis (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 Sealed

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Olympia) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 Sealed

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Benevides (Kassai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 Sealed

Round 5: Loss vs Eli Itzkowitz (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-
R3	Sealed	Olympia	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Sealed	Kassai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Sealed	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.