Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster at Calling: Montréal 2026

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Philippe Arcand

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Fromm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs paikan le faou-brabant (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andromeda Clover (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.71
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Amelia Russell

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 11:89

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Gemme (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathanael Frautschy (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.82
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

paikan le faou-brabant

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Malik Salah (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Philippe Arcand (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Olsen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.