Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Liverpool

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Christopher O'Toole

48th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Fullarton (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kassia McGeoch (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cecil-Ember Phoenix (Unknown)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Unknown)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Theo Maggs (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs William Borwick (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Nils Klaper

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Rodger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Christian (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.31
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

James Thourgood

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Donoso (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Andrew Fullarton (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Nijssen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 59:41

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Unknown)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Parry (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.21
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.