Kano, Dracai of Aether at World Championship: Philadelphia

Kano, Dracai of Aether

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim McCarthy

80th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

15:85

R10 LL

Round 10: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 17:83

R11

R11 LL

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.75
R8	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Win	✗	0.70	2.61
R10	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R11	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Hicks

41st • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Tigran Grigorian (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Ian Zhang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 17:83

R10

R10 LL

Round 10: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R11 LL

Round 11: Loss vs Connar Bodoh (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.75
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.08
R9	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R10	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Corwin Benton

82nd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Luka Kramaric (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Elly Bird (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

55:45

R10 LL

Round 10: Win vs Evan Ford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R11 LL

Round 11: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	LL	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.35
R11	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.48

Joris Verhelst

102nd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.5

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Phil Kinney (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Zak Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

65:35

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R10 LL

Round 10: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R11 LL

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.17
R8	LL	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.71	2.41
R9	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.97
R10	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Troy Benton

103rd • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Charles Dunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

R10

R10 LL

Round 10: Win vs None ()

R11

R11 LL

Round 11: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.94
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R10	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alan Rogers

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Ford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jimmy Nguyen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Eugene C (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.88
R8	LL	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

James Miller

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Gabe Sher (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.50
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Tyler Zeringue

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Nick Pearce (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Win	✗	0.59	3.02
R8	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Joshua Borger

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Piotr Chudobinski (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

15:85

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 17:83

65:35

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Annabelle McQuade (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R8	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Nicholas Mihalas

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Alex Rodgers (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.00
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.