World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Briar, Warden of Thorns (LL)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Irby

64th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

6.6

Diff

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Quinten de Jongh (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R10

R10 LL

Round 10: Win vs Ryan Rich (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R11

R11 LL

Round 11: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.93
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.21
R10	LL	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83

Griffin Meyers

72nd • 3-3-0

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

8.1

Diff

20:80

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78

30:70

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Braben (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

20:80

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Arthur Reynolds (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

35:65

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R10 LL

Round 10: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R11 LL

Round 11: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

8.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Win	✗	0.70	2.03
R8	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.89
R9	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Win	✗	0.70	3.18

JONATHAN HENLEY

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

4.9

Diff

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Mel Falcon (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Vincent PROUM (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.65	3.03
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.86
R8	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Blake Godenzi

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Chad Emerick

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.59
R7	LL	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Peng Joon

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Gen Shinohara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	LL	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Connor Babcock

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.