World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (LL)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Barrett Goss

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

5.6

Diff

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs William Bradshaw (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.97
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Adam Fronsee

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Shane Martin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 LL

Round 7: Draw vs Aaron Boyhan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Grzegorz Kowalski (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	75%	Win	✓	0.25	1.11

Gen Shinohara

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

75:25

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 75:25

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Peng Joon (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.97
R8	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Gottlieb

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Singleton (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	75%	Win	✓	0.25	1.11

Pauli Viimaranta

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33
R8	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Boyhan

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R7 LL

Round 7: Draw vs Adam Fronsee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Daja Todesco

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs James Warburton (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.