World Championship: Philadelphia 2025 - Aurora, Shooting Star (LL)

Aurora, Shooting Star

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Elly Bird

60th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R9 LL

Round 9: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

R10

R10 LL

Round 10: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R11 LL

Round 11: Win vs Gary White (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R10	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.46

Andrew Clayton

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

5.2

Diff

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Raven (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Donghee Kim (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Michel Corvino (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	3.13
R8	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	2.07

Phil Kinney

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

7.3

Diff

15:85

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Joao Morato (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Win	✗	0.85	7.30

Ralph Schlauri

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

0.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

15:85

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Rob Catton (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (0.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.33
R8	LL	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Silas Fiefhaus

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 58:42

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	LL	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.67

Ville Teräväinen

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	3.58

Zack Phillips

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

15:85

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Dash I/O) - Expected: 17:83

15:85

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Craig Krempels (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	LL	Dash I/O	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R8	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Sadat Minick

dropped • 1-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

15:85

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Lilith Duhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (0.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	3.50

Marc Pearce

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tommy Buljan

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.