Battle Hardened: Hamburg 2025 - Dash I/O (LL)

Dash I/O

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ilias Karamanis

14th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Quest Pittman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Westmore ()

65:35

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Niclas Grießhaber (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Liam Holden ()

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Guillem Las Heras ()

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Julius Otte

31st • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs None ()

65:35

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Collett (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Shahmir Samee (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Carr ()

40:60

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Joel Dixon (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	LL		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.17
R7	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kaloyan Nikov

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Stahl (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

30:70

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R3	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.82
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Rob Catton

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Gremm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 29:71

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Tigran Grigorian ()

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Tanguy ()

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	LL		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Karanjeet Singh

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 31:69

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Atkinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	LL	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.