Battle Hardened: Hamburg 2025 - Chane, Bound by Shadow (LL)

Chane, Bound by Shadow

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Shahmir Samee

2nd • 7-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Evan Tanguy ()

70:30

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Julius Otte (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Noah Hicks ()

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Emad Kashy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 80:20

55:45

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 57:43

R8 LL

Round 8: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito ()

80:20

R9 LL

Round 9: Win vs Niclas Grießhaber (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R10 LL

Round 10: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.15
R4	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.19
R7	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.33
R10	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Philip van Donselaar

5th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Ania Grudnowska ()

70:30

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Rob Catton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

80:20

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Emad Kashy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Alvaro Toledano Benito ()

50:50

R8 LL

Round 8: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R3	LL	Nuu, Alluring Desire	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.12
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.27
R7	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lubos Vanicek

9th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Ralph Schlauri ()

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt ()

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Kaloyan Nikov (Dash I/O) - Expected: 71:29

80:20

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22

80:20

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.05
R2	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.31
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.