Kayo, Underhanded Cheat at Calling: Shizuoka 2025

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

稜馬石川

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs naoyuki kojima (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 直人三田 (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs TAKEYUKI MATSUBARA (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

kei kimura

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs TAITO SUZUKI (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 37:63

5:95

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 了亮足立 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

怜矢小池

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yuki ideue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.