Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Phuket 2024
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
24th • 7-4-0
36%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
4.7
Surp
4.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nitya Kalaichelvan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Somers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nattapon Phanthanithilerd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Melvin Chew (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jose Lau (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nova Chan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jun Kheng Ong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Xiaonan Zou (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
Round 11: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
36% (4/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
37th • 6-5-0
55%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
5.0
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Nisthal (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Areena Jasmine Yazid (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shing Tsang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Soh zheng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Prempracha Saensupar (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lu Wei Soh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Justian Frederick (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Ivan Teo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
55% (6/11 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 5-5-0
70%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
5.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Liew Kai Fai (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lane Thomason (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs FUNG CC (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs RICARDO DIAZ (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Round 8: Loss vs Ray lam (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Lu Wei Soh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
Round 10: Loss vs Soh zheng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Ho Wei jie. (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gary Lee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Chee Shi Feng (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Oh Oh (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs (IG) Davin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39
Round 6: Loss vs Ray lam (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hariz Hamdan (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.4
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kai Young Tan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Round 4: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Chu (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Julio Anthony (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hilmi Halim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cliff Wong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dale Low (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Leonard Foo (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs (IG) Davin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yu Heng Chew (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.