National Championship 2025 - Iceland - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Þór Guðnason

5th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vairis Klavins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benedikt Andrésson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sigurður Þormóðsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sindri Guðmundsson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Fannar Larusson

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ásgeir Jóhannesson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benedikt Andrésson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.79
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Vairis Klavins

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Þór Guðnason (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefán Reykdal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Þorsteinn Atli Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Ísak thomas Birgisson

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benedikt Andrésson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laureen Jib (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.45
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.