Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Þór Guðnason

5th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vairis Klavins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benedikt Andrésson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sigurður Þormóðsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sindri Guðmundsson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.77
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Fannar Larusson

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ásgeir Jóhannesson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benedikt Andrésson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.78
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Vairis Klavins

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Þór Guðnason (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefán Reykdal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Þorsteinn Atli Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.45
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Ísak thomas Birgisson

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benedikt Andrésson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hugi Hlynsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laureen Jib (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.35
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.