National Championship 2025 - Iceland - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ásgeir Jóhannesson

1st • 6-0-0

83%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Máni Steinn (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fannar Larusson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Svavar Hinriksson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Birkir Örn Sigurðsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ragnar Daði Sigurðsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Sindri Guðmundsson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.92
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.05
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.93

Baldur Guðmundsson

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Snorri Hafthorsson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aron Trausti (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bjarki már Ingólfsson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.55

Þorsteinn Atli Kristjánsson

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hlynur Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sigurður Þormóðsson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vairis Klavins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

Hlynur Kristjánsson

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Þorsteinn Atli Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Haukur Thor Buason (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Máni Steinn (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.