Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sigurður Þormóðsson

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

Puffin, Hightail

95:5

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aron Trausti (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Þorsteinn Atli Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

Prism, Awakener of Sol

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Þór Guðnason (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.04
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.41

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Svavar Hinriksson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

Prism, Awakener of Sol

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ísak thomas Birgisson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefán Reykdal (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.