Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025 - Iceland

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Haukur Thor Buason

dropped • 1-1-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fannar Larusson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Hlynur Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Puffin, Hightail

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aron Trausti (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Valur Ketilsson

dropped • 0-3-0

0%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laureen Jib (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bjarki már Ingólfsson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

Jarl Vetreiði

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Þór Jóhannesson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.