National Championship 2025 - Iceland - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC) - FaB-Results

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Haukur Thor Buason

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fannar Larusson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Hlynur Kristjánsson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Puffin, Hightail

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aron Trausti (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Valur Ketilsson

dropped • 0-3-0

0%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laureen Jib (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bjarki már Ingólfsson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Jarl Vetreiði

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Þór Jóhannesson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.