Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Szots

3rd • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tudor Serban (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 68:32

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandru Tanase (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.11
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.40
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

5th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Imre Simon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Szots (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.06
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexandru Ungureanu

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandru Tanase (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kis-Gall David (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Onica Lucian (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.27
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Bogdan Popa

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Imre Simon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.