National Championship 2025 - Romania - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Szots

3rd • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tudor Serban (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vlad Ciobotea (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandru Tanase (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.40
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Bogdan-Andrei Oros

5th • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Imre Simon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Szots (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.32
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexandru Ungureanu

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandru Tanase (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kis-Gall David (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Onica Lucian (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.26
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

Bogdan Popa

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandru Cucereanu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Imre Simon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.