National Championship 2025 - Romania - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Szabolcs Egri

1st • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kis-Gall David (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandru Tanase (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandru Hristache (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.82
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.48
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.89

Andrei Sebastian Suciu

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vlad Negru (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandru Hristache (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandra-Gabriela Frangopol (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Tudor Serban

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Szots (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Traian Costea (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vlad Negru (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.