Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Szabolcs Egri

1st • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kis-Gall David (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandru Tanase (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandru Hristache (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Chirulescu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.82
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.46
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.81

Andrei Sebastian Suciu

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vlad Negru (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexandru Hristache (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandra-Gabriela Frangopol (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.41
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.93

Tudor Serban

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Szots (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Traian Costea (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vlad Negru (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.36
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.