Kayo at World Championship Qualifier 2025

Kayo

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ma Kang shuo

5th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs HAN LONG LIU (Cindra) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Huang Hsiang En (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Po-Chuan Lin (Gravy Bones) - Expected: 64:36

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs HSU WEI-CHUNG (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Redc Chen (Verdance) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Cindra	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	Blitz	Gravy Bones	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R4	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Verdance	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

HSU WEI-CHUNG

14th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jing Hao Fang (Cindra) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs 健峰簡 (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs yu hong wang (Aurora) - Expected: 46:54

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Joey Jiik (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Shao Qi Zeng (Verdance) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Cindra	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	Blitz	Aurora	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R4	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Verdance	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Chang Huan Jui

15th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Redc Chen (Verdance) - Expected: 28:72

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs 陸宗彥 (Unknown)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs yi chuan lai (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Shao Qi Zeng (Verdance) - Expected: 28:72

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Verdance	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Verdance	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	Blitz	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R6	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.