Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Abdurrahman Putra

11th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ebnu Suryadhi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ode Suputra (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs martinus indra (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Odi Winata (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Zul Kifli (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Anditya Tornando (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.50
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.83
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	3.02

Melvin Tan

16th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anditya Tornando (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stevano Raphael (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Willy Felim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Zul Kifli (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dyatmika Paramaanindya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.11
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.73
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Ade Fahri Syany

33rd • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dyatmika Paramaanindya (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Sugianto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Leonardo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Anditya Tornando (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Romanos Defiano (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Setiawan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.