Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Indonesia
Arakni, Marionette
2 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Performance Metrics
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.