Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

valentin mackl

5th • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Marvin Heusinger

3rd • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Haselberger (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Christian Drabusenigg

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Luk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Reichhart (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Ethan Krogsgard

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Luk (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Lukavsky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.38

Tom Tucek

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Reitbauer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nemanja Milenkovic (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.