Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Florin-Cristian Loghin

1st • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jakob Indra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Krogsgard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Haselberger (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Daniel Wallner

3rd • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philipp Reiter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Lukavsky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Tsohohey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

David Reitbauer

5th • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luka Leko (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Nemanja Milenkovic

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Lukavsky (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Wallner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Tucek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.70
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Morris Prem

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Krainer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.