Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Manfred Eregger

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Reitbauer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christoph Lengauer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Morris Prem (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Andreas Mitterlechner

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philipp Gmeiner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lukas Einramhof (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Christoph Lengauer

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs valentin mackl (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manfred Eregger (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Florian Krainer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.