National Championship 2025 - Austria - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lukas Einramhof

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jakob Indra (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Mitterlechner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.30

Michael Haselberger

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Triebl (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.82
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Tibor Csonka

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Estelberger (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs valentin mackl (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.