National Championship 2025 - Estonia - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Theo Markus Tõnnov

3rd • 4-1-0

40%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Indrek Orlov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Karl Vilhem Pulk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juho Hälli (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs ILJA Ivantsikov (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Nikita Laasmaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.54
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.25
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.68
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Indrek Orlov

3rd • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Markus Tõnnov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Zeman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Zussev (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aleksandr Novikov (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.48
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.56
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jekaterina Obodjanskaja

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs ILJA Ivantsikov (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Vadim Pilipenko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.