Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

ILJA Ivantsikov

5th • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jekaterina Obodjanskaja (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nikita Laasmaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gustavo Stabelini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Theo Markus Tõnnov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.21
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Andres Dorogan

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Victor Kersten (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Gustavo Stabelini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Martin Zeman

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Karl Vilhem Pulk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Indrek Orlov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Konstantins Bukaskins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.