Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025 - Estonia
Prism, Awakener of Sol
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 5-1-0
50%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ILJA Ivantsikov (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Aleksandr Novikov (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
85:15
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Karl Vilhem Pulk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 85:15
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Theo Markus Tõnnov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.