Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025 - Estonia
Puffin, Hightail
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 3-1-0
50%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jana Zussev (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Win vs Jevgeni Dubei (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nikita Laasmaa (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40
5:95
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Indrek Orlov (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 5% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.