National Championship 2025 - Estonia - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dmitri Sidorenko

5th • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Zussev (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Konstantins Bukaskins (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andres Dorogan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.57
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Victor Reis

dropped • 1-1-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Artjom Pertsev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Kersten (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Karl Vilhem Pulk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Vadim Pilipenko

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jevgeni Dubei (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jekaterina Obodjanskaja (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.