Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Taipei 2023
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 13-2-0
27%
Meta
+6.2
Perf
7.9
Surp
8.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chen Ming (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eugene Phua (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 陳 子豫 (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs CHEN POHUA (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Huang Bo wei (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Steven Chen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Yongzhao Zhang (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 38:62
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Allen Lau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Huang Bo wei (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Allen Lau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 15: Win vs Nick Butcher (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
27% (4/15 favorable matchups)
Performance
+6.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 13 actual)
Surprise
7.9 total deviation
Difficulty
8.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R13 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
27th • 8-4-0
25%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
6.1
Surp
4.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Hiroyuki Kawai (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs LEE JUI-CHI (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Si-Jie Gao (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jake mccormack (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yongzhao Zhang (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Torpong Juntree (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs tim Lin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 9: Win vs Eric Chu (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs kouji hamada (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
25% (3/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Yip (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs CHANG’HSIN-EN HSIN-EN (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kho Fong Tong (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cesar Yrick Sevilla (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Loss vs Wang Chung Chi (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Liu Bo Yu (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
57%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cyrus Wong (Unknown)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Chu (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eric Cheong (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs York kwok (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs YU CHUNG HUANG (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chen xi ke (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Cheng Chun-You (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
17%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Benjimin Chong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs GAO ZHI-PENG (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs CHANG CHIEH TING (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs Sze Long Hsu (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs JIMMY NEO (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs OWN HSIANG YU (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Abdul Hakim Green (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aiden Wong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
Round 5: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Yau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 51:49
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ma Kang shuo (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alex Lo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.