Olympia at Showdown: Mexico City 2026

Olympia

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Mendez

30th • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs Luis Cisneros (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jesús Armando Herrera Solis (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs OMAR MATA (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Angel Huacuja (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs MARTIN GOMEZ LOPEZ (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Levia	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Julio Heredia

19th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Clements (Levia) - Expected: 42:58

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Luis Canche (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rodolfo García (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Manuel Curiel (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Levia	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

OMAR MATA

28th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rafael Perez Estrada (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Javier Moreno Varela (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ander Cepeda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Mendez (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Canche (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ivan Barba Macias (Fang) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fang	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jesús Armando Herrera Solis

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Alejandro Burgueño Sanchez (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mendez (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Osmar Bravo (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Diego Solorzano (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Osmar Bravo

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alejandro Rihani (Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Rodríguez (Levia) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jesús Armando Herrera Solis (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea, Quicksilver Prodigy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Levia	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.