Kayo at Showdown: Mexico City 2026

Kayo

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luis Canche

23rd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Oscar Soto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Arturo Rojas (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Julio Heredia (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs OMAR MATA (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Angel Huacuja (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.29
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tommy Arevalo

36th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Arnoldo Sandoval (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Soto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mario Gomez (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Diego Solorzano (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jesus abdias De la paz alvarez (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Juan Homero Violante

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Miguel Mackay (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jorge Tueme (Hala) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs nissim hernandez (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Cisneros (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Manuel Espinosa Méndez (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Hala	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jose de Jesus Romero Valdez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hayley Neighbors (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Diego Solorzano (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs MARTIN GOMEZ LOPEZ (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tania Paola Rosas Rodríguez (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.