Olympia at Sunday Showdown: Bilbao 2026

Olympia

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hernán Cortez

9th • 5-1-1

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Morgado Morata (Viserai, Between Worlds) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs simon diaz (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jaime Leon (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai, Between Worlds	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alessandro Carrara

31st • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jotrick Rheaume (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Bill Early (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David De Sousa (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Luca Barcella (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Warre Sevens (Viserai, Between Worlds) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Oscar Gonzalez Muñoz (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Viserai, Between Worlds	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bill Early

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Garcia (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Carrara (Olympia) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mikel Lopez (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Léo Solivérès (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.