Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

George Melissakis

2nd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Alexakis (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs konstantinos konstantinidis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefanos Michalakis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Flavio Dollani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.68
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.88
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.86
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Michael Mitsikoudis

27th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dimitrios Farmakis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vangelis Giannakis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Kitsos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Konstantinos Tsolakakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Stefania Patsou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.87

Isidoros Popovits

10th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ioannis Tsolakidis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stavros Stavromitros (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Angelos Maxilaris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Gregory Patellis

21st • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Panagiotis Xanthopoulos (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Konstantinos Tsolakakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Georgios Tsechilidis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Takis Pavlou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.94
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Giwrgos Tsiampas

32nd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Angelos Maxilaris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yannis Stathakis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Paraskevopoulos (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Valantis Petmezas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Αναστάσιος Παπαγιάννης (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.66
R9	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Angelos Maxilaris

17th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giwrgos Tsiampas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andreas Ritzakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Konstantinos Tsolakakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Μαριος Γιουβανούδης (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Konstantinos Tsolakakis

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giorgos Dailianis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Angelos Maxilaris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Mitsikoudis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Iason Kouvakas

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dimitris Kavvadas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alkis Sejati (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Μαριος Γιουβανούδης (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs KONSTANTINOS STERGIOU (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.31
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Panagiotis Sotiropoulos

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nikolas Koutounidis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Valantis Petmezas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christos Kontzoglou (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.57

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.