Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Flavio Dollani

18th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yannis Stathakis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Beddy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Kitsos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs George Melissakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nikos Evgenidis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sotiris Konstantelos (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.14
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.15
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Andreas Ritzakis

20th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Giannis Karakoulias (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Angelos Maxilaris (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Beddy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Antonis Autzalanidis (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs panagiotis ntemiris (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Manos Apostolakis (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.03
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Dimitris Melissinos

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs panagiotis ntemiris (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Konstantinos Tsolakakis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Mitsikoudis (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Beddy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Loukas Petroulakis

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Valantis Petmezas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giannis Karakoulias (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.