National Championship 2026 - Sweden - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Trossing

1st • 8-1-0

56%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

6.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gustav André (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Aditya Rajan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Sandén (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jacob Nielsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nic Palm (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.77
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.96
R11	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.66
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.50

Albert Schütt

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Konrad Niva (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Italo Molina (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Konrad Niva

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Péter Kökény (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.23

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.