National Championship 2026 - Malaysia - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Bonaventure

48th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elden Kang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shua Shua (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Khang Wei Chu (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Afiq Danial (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Shun-Lok Hoi (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ivan Dinnesh (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Shu Shen Liang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.23

Akuma What

dropped • 2-3-1

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Chris Saw (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kai Young Tan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shua Shua (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Muhammad Abdul Rahman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs yong Jia jer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Raja Afiq (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.82
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Josiah Cheah

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Afiq Danial (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Mook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Avex Lim Lian Hui (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Zodie Mohamed Hanafiah (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Yi Jun Loh

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Danial Hakimi (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs CYK Lionel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Chin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jian Wei Tee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.