National Championship 2026 - Hungary - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marcell Vass

1st • 6-0-0

83%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

6.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bence Androkity (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Szabo Gyuszi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Márton Kenessey (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dávid István Kovács (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Márton Kenessey (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tomor Péter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.24
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.23
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Win	✗	0.77	3.21

Bence Androkity

3rd • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcell Vass (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tamás Lepedus (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Botond Szujó (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Imre Simon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tomor Péter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.03
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.38
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Bálint Tóth

20th • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tomor Péter (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Beni Balazsi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Szabo Gyuszi (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.