National Championship 2026 - Brazil - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Laerte Cursino

30th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Gradella (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evandro Campos (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raphael Marinho (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Navarro (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Darcy Camargo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.24
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.86

Lucas Bortolucci

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs André Cavalcanti (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Oliveira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.20

André Cavalcanti

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matheus Siqueira Fernandes (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Átila Lima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joao Morato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.