National Championship 2026 - France - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adrien Defarge

10th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Loïc Hervé (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Bruckert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tom Escoffier (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Albert GUYO (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Adrien Krifa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.87
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.44
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mélusine Haegeman

72nd • 1-6-0

14%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Brunoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs May Made (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs mickael assemat (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eloi Meens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ariela Randriamasy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Vincent Degrandis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Alexis Dehaese

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Hammouti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs diego santiago (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sébastien Bondue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.