National Championship 2026 - New Zealand - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Samuel Graham-Walker

5th • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Dunlop (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dr. Daniel McKay (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Digl Dixon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Little (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Darryn Ying (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matt Rogers (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Collins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.30
R10	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.35
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shamal Singh

41st • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marko Zutic (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68

5:95

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cameron Hay (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Seb Hart (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mae Jane Collett (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Digl Dixon (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Marshall Stevenson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R9	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.59
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.63

Kieran Carnegie

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tre Winika (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Pearce (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raymond Ocdol (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Liam Fisher (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Elliott Nichols (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.19
R9	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.