Chane, Bound by Shadow
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 8-2-0
100%
Meta
+2.7
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.5
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Chia Yong Teck (Unknown)
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R9 LL
Round 9: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R10 LL
Round 10: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
100% (10/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
3rd • 7-2-0
100%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.4
Surp
3.1
Diff
60:40
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)
60:40
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Austin Redington (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Unknown)
R8
R8 LL
Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Unknown)
Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Loss |
5th • 7-1-0
100%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Emery Powell (Unknown)
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Frank Boothroyd (Unknown)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs CYK Lionel (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Pheano Black (Unknown)
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
5th • 6-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.8
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Unknown)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Alex Knott (Unknown)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Porter Jones (Unknown)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Unknown)
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 8: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Loss |
22nd • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Tim Chambers (Unknown)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Alex Tyler (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Eric Towne (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Pheano Black (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
26th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Jones (Unknown)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Cody Williams (Unknown)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Unknown)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Tristen Farmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Unknown)
65:35
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Marcus Brown (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Eric Towne (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Unknown)
60:40
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Zachary Wallach (Unknown)
60:40
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Loss |
31st • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
60:40
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jared Wyce (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Tony Mapelli (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Emily Froese (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Unknown)
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Loss |
32nd • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Chris Kern (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Tristen Farmer (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Unknown)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Matt Muus (Unknown)
65:35
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Corey Baker (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
40th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Dreisziger (Unknown)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Bun Ar (Unknown)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Josh Lind (Unknown)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Unknown)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
44th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Emily Froese (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Unknown)
Round 5: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Feilicity Clark (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Lee Kimball (Unknown)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Chris Waugh (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Reeve Chia (Unknown)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Unknown)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Unknown)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Dung (Yung) Le (Unknown)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 51:49
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Rath (Unknown)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Jared Wyce (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Unknown)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Chris Kern (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.