Briar, Warden of Thorns at Battle Hardened: Los Angeles

Briar, Warden of Thorns

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Magnuson

18th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Towne (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Sadat Minick (Unknown)

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Alex Knott (Unknown)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs SEAN STELL (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan (chugs) Moore

37th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Unknown)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Unknown)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Unknown)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Sadat Minick (Unknown)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Jared Wyce (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Marcus Brown

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Natalie Edwards (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Gary White (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Unknown)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Koosha Jahani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.