Battle Hardened: Los Angeles - Briar, Warden of Thorns (LL)

Briar, Warden of Thorns

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Magnuson

18th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Towne (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 34:66

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Sadat Minick (Unknown)

35:65

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Alex Knott (Unknown)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs SEAN STELL (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jude Cornett (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.66
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.54

Jonathan (chugs) Moore

37th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Chia Yong Teck (Unknown)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Lefebvre (Unknown)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Unknown)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Sadat Minick (Unknown)

35:65

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Jared Wyce (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Marcus Brown

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Natalie Edwards (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

35:65

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Gary White (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 34:66

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Unknown)

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Koosha Jahani (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.31
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.