World Championship Qualifier 2025 - Belgium - Arakni, Solitary Confinement (Blitz)

Arakni, Solitary Confinement

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sébastien Spilliaert

5th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nefra Greywulf (Verdance) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kenny Van Rompaey (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Kayo) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Quentin fallais (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash, Database) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Verdance	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R5	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	Blitz	Dash, Database	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Patrick Mishima

9th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Rotsaert (Dash, Database) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Sander Deceuninck (Data Doll MKII) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Matthias Keisse (Kayo) - Expected: 71:29

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Michel Van der noord (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Quentin fallais (Vynnset) - Expected: 29:71

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Laura Van der Stichelen (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash, Database	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.29
R2	Blitz	Data Doll MKII	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R4	Blitz	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Vynnset	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

simon haesaerts

14th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Davy Vanden Broeck (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Kayo) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Van den Wyngaerde (Kayo) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Aurora) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Quinten de Jongh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.25
R4	Blitz	Aurora	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Huylebroeck

26th • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Joris Borkelmans (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Wim Raes (Betsy) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Erwin Van Herrewegen (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Toon Borremans (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Christof Ackaert (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Betsy	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.